沪深300ETF 拟合效果的比较研究--基于华泰柏瑞沪深和嘉实沪深300ETF

文章比较分析了沪深300股指期货套期保值所采用的几种现货工具：上证180ETF 或上证50ETF 和深证100ETF 构建的 ETF 组合、华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF,实证检验了两只沪深300ETF 以及 ETF 组合对沪深300股指期货的拟合效果的差异,为现货工具的选择给出建议,并为后续对沪深300ETF 的套期保值的研究做出铺垫。     

经济发展、个人所得税调整与城镇居民收入差距

通过收集中国28个省、市、自治区2003—2012年的面板数据一方面验证库兹涅茨曲线在中国是否成立,另一方面,在库兹涅茨曲线基础之上验证2006年和2011年个人所得税调整对中国城镇居民收入差距的影响。实证研究结果表明,库兹涅茨曲线在中国显著存在,而且当人均实际GDP达到20 000元(2003年不变价格)左右时,中国城镇居民的收入差距随着人均GDP的进一步增加而逐渐下降,与跨国面板的实证结论一致。在该库兹涅茨曲线基础之上2006年个人所得税调整对城镇居民收入差距的影响不显著,而2011年的个人所得税调整则显著地降低了中国城镇居民的收入差距。     

A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

This paper presents a model of employment, distribution andinflation in which a modern error correction specification ofthe nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims onincome by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It isbrought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error-correctionsetting, which actually seems to capture the wage and pricedynamics of many large-scale econometric models quite well,is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillipscurve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impactof various shocks to the model can be profitably conceived ofand interpreted in terms of (and to some extent even calculatedby means of) this long-run Phillips curve.     

BOC(10,5)信号的调制与解调

讨论了卫星导航中BOC调制解调的原理和实现方法，并着重研究了接收机的码跟踪技术。首先阐述了BOC信号体制出现的国际背景及信号特点，并介绍了BOC（10，5）信号形式和频谱特性，然后简要介绍了信号调制的方法，最后重点讨论信号解调方法。针对BOC信号多峰结构的自相关特性，分别研究并比较了两种解调方案，最后综合两者特点提出了组合式解调恢复方法。     

二季度债券市场收益率曲线将陡峭化上行

在充裕资金面的影响下，一季度银行间债券市场走出一波温和上扬行情，10年期国债收益率从年初的3．7％左右下行至一季度末的3．35％附近。文章综合相关数据分析后预计，未来工业增加值增速、货币供应量将有所放缓，新增贷款有望平稳增长，宏观经济仍将高位运行，结合经济走势相似年份的CPl均值，预计二季度CPI上行至3％后逐步回落，国债及政策性金融债收益率曲线整体小幅上行，收益率曲线呈现陡峭化态势。     

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS REVISITED: ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS INTO WHY THEY FAIL

Economic sanctions have a poor track record in achieving their objectives. In most cases, they are ineffective in bringing about policy change, cause increased suffering in the sanctioned country and reduce opportunities for business. This paper provides additional insights into why sanctions fail by examining two overlooked factors: power–dependency theory and pressure for political stability.     

河北省土地生态系统服务价值研究及趋势预测

编制适用于河北省的土地生态系统服务价值系数表,利用土地基础数据和生态系统服务价值量化模型,计算出河北省土地生态系统服务价值在1996～2006年呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势;并运用spss统计软件中的曲线回归对变化趋势做出了合理预测。     

考虑应力作用影响的黄泛区粉土土水特征曲线分析与预测

为了研究应力作用对土水特征曲线的影响，采用应力关联土水特征仪测定不同应力下粉土的脱湿-吸湿曲线，讨论应力变化对粉土土水特征的影响规律，并利用应力与孔隙比的关系提出考虑应力作用的粉土土水特征曲线预测方法。研究发现：试样在应力逐渐增加时不易脱水，但更易吸水，非饱和粉土的持水能力随着正应力的增大而增强；脱湿曲线与吸湿曲线并不重合，有明显的回滞现象，并且吸湿曲线饱和度的变化比脱湿曲线更加剧烈；随着正应力的增大，滞回圈面积减小，滞回特性减弱。此外，将预测曲线与测得的试验曲线对比, 可知提出的考虑应力的土水特征曲线预测方法具有较好的预测精度。     

Putting the learning curve in context

In implementation of change, people learn new ways of doing things, develop new skills, and adopt new organizational routines. This paper applies learning curve theory to implementation by developing a system dynamics model that includes two extensions to classic learning curve theory. First, the model includes a required output level for the individual. Second, the model includes a budget constraint on time that forces a choice between an old and a new way to achieve the output. Doing work the new way builds experience, increasing productivity and thus favoring continued use of the new skill, but model analysis demonstrates that this reinforcing process works to favor the new skill only at relatively high levels of productivity. Otherwise, the same process is a vicious cycle, driving out the new skill. The model exhibits a mode of behavior in which learning begins and then stalls and another mode in which the new skill becomes the preferred one. The paper identifies the tipping point between these two modes and characterizes the transition problem: Learning by doing is a dynamic process, a transition from use of an old way to a new way that requires accumulating experience beyond a threshold.